In a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, US President Joe Biden has hinted at the possibility of lifting the ban on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian targets. This policy shift, if implemented, could prove to be a turning point in Ukraine’s defence strategy and potentially change the dynamics of the war that has been going on since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
A long-standing request from Ukraine
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has consistently requested the United States and its allies to provide it with more advanced weapons, particularly long-range missiles. Ukrainian officials argue that these weapons are crucial to strike deep into Russian territory and to stop the aggressive advance of the Russian army. However, so far, Washington has been cautious about providing such capabilities due to concerns about escalating the conflict and provoking a direct confrontation with Russia.
President Biden’s recent comments suggest that this cautious approach may be changing. When asked by reporters if the U.S. would ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, Biden replied, “We’re working on it right now.” The statement has sparked significant interest and speculation among international observers and political analysts about what this could mean for the future of the conflict.
Concerns of escalation
For much of the war, the United States and its NATO allies have been wary of supplying weapons that could be used to strike deep inside Russia. The fear is that such actions could escalate the conflict into a wider war, potentially bringing NATO countries into direct confrontation with Russia or even leading to a nuclear conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously warned that attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory using missiles supplied by Western countries could lead to serious consequences. “Continuous escalation can lead to serious consequences,” he said earlier this year. “Do they want a global conflict?” The risk of escalation has been a key factor in the West’s strategic decision-making throughout the conflict. So far, while the U.S. has delivered some long-range weapons to Ukraine, these have been accompanied by strict restrictions on their use. These restrictions have generally allowed Ukraine to only strike Russian military bases near the border, from where troops are launching attacks, rather than targets deeper within Russia.
Growing pressure from Kiev
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration have been vocal in their frustration over the pace and scope of Western weapons deliveries. They argue that the limits imposed on the use of long-range missiles are hampering Ukraine’s ability to effectively counter Russian forces and end the invasion. Zelensky has repeatedly requested authorization to strike deep into Russian territory with missiles supplied by Western countries, a move the U.S. has so far opposed.
Kiev argues that without the ability to hit strategic targets deep in Russia, they are fighting with “one hand tied behind their back.” For Ukraine, the war is not just about defending its territory, but also about taking proactive steps to deter and degrade Russia’s military capabilities.
U.S. allies share similar concerns
The U.S. is not alone in its cautious approach. Other Western allies such as the U.K., France and Germany are also providing long-range weapons to Ukraine, but with strict conditions on their use. The shared concern among these countries is that any attack within Russian territory could spark retaliation against NATO countries or even nuclear threats from Russia.
Despite these concerns, restrictions have been gradually eased in recent months. For example, some Western-supplied weapons have been allowed to be used along the Russian border where troops are actively firing into Ukraine. This represents a slight change in policy, but it still does not allow Ukraine to target areas deep within Russia.
Iran’s role and Western sanctions
The discussions about lifting the ban on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles come at a time when the U.S. and its allies are imposing new sanctions on Iran for allegedly supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. On Tuesday, the U.S., Britain, France and Germany announced new measures against Iran, targeting individuals and entities accused of facilitating military aid for Russia.
According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iranian forces have trained Russian troops to use these ballistic missiles, which could be deployed against Ukrainian targets within a matter of weeks. The addition of Iran-supplied missiles to Russia’s arsenal could significantly increase its ability to strike Ukrainian cities and military bases, especially those located close to the Russian border.
