Political turmoil erupted in Bangladesh in early August, leading to the sudden departure of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from her homeland. Her dramatic escape, landing at a military base near Delhi, set off a chain reaction with significant implications for India’s diplomatic strategy in the region. Sheikh Hasina’s sudden exit was the result of growing student-led protests and violent unrest in Bangladesh. Initially, it was anticipated that her stay in India would be brief, as she was seeking asylum in Western countries. However, after several weeks passed without success in her asylum attempts, India is faced with a complex dilemma in managing its relations with both the interim government in Dhaka and the international community. Strategic Importance of Bangladesh For India, Bangladesh is more than just a neighbour; it is a vital strategic ally. The two countries share a 4,096-km (2,545-mile) border, which is crucial for maintaining security in India’s northeastern states. The porous nature of this border has historically allowed armed insurgents to enter Bangladesh to seek refuge. During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, her government played a key role in curbing such insurgent activities and amicably managing border disputes with India.
Furthermore, under Hasina’s rule, economic and infrastructure ties flourished. India benefited from increased connectivity through Bangladesh, facilitating the transport of goods to its northeastern states. Since 2010, India has extended over $7 billion in loans to Bangladesh for development projects, reflecting the growing economic interdependence between the two countries.
Diplomatic tensions and political fallout
The turmoil in Bangladesh and Hasina’s departure have put India in a precarious position. The Indian government will now have to manage its relations with the interim government in Dhaka as well as address domestic and international criticism. Hasina’s sudden exit has left India grappling with the consequences of its long-standing support for her administration.
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, India’s former high commissioner to Dhaka, described the situation as a major setback. He acknowledged that any instability in the neighbouring country is undesirable for India, but stressed that Delhi should work closely with the interim government given the compulsions of the situation. Many in Indian diplomatic circles have reiterated this view, stressing the need to maintain pragmatic ties despite the political turmoil.
Backlash of support
India’s support for Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party has received considerable backlash within Bangladesh. Many Bangladeshis hold resentment towards India for supporting elections marred by allegations of vote-rigging. This resentment has contributed to a widespread sense of disillusionment with India’s regional policies.
The interim government in Dhaka now faces the challenge of addressing this discontent while charting its own path forward. Analysts suggest that India’s “neighbourhood first” policy is facing another setback after similar tensions in its relations with the Maldives and Nepal. These countries have also expressed resistance to perceived Indian dominance, further complicating Delhi’s regional strategy.
Engaging with opposition parties
The ouster of Sheikh Hasina from power presents a significant diplomatic opportunity for India. Analysts argue that Delhi has historically focused its efforts on engaging with Hasina and her party, often at the expense of building ties with other political factions in Bangladesh. This approach is now being criticised as a strategic blunder.
Abdul Moin Khan, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), points out that India’s low engagement with the BNP has been a significant lapse. With the BNP potentially winning future elections, India will have to recalibrate its diplomatic strategy to accommodate this major opposition party. The BNP, led by Begum Khaleda Zia, has long been an important voice in Bangladeshi politics and has accused Hasina of political vendetta.
Water disputes and regional tensions
Apart from political and diplomatic challenges, India also has to address environmental and resource-related tensions with Bangladesh. The two countries share 54 rivers, and disputes over water resources sometimes lead to conflict. The recent floods in Bangladesh, which were worsened by heavy rains in India’s Tripura state, led to allegations by Bangladeshi villagers that India had deliberately released water from dams, worsening the floods.
Such incidents highlight the sensitivity of cross-border environmental issues and the need for transparent communication to avoid misunderstandings and further straining bilateral relations.
Growing Chinese influence
Amid these challenges, China’s growing influence in South Asia is also adding to tensions in the region.