As the US moves towards Election Day on November 5, 2024, the presidential race is heating up. Essentially similar to the 2020 election, the race took a crucial turn in July when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. This development has led to speculation: will Donald Trump secure a second term or will Kamala Harris make history by becoming the first female US president?
National Polling Overview
In the months before Biden withdrew, polls consistently showed him trailing Donald Trump. Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee, faced similar challenges, with early polls indicating she might not perform much better. However, the dynamics of the race changed as Harris ramped up her campaign efforts.
Recent national polls show Harris has a slight lead over Trump. So far, Harris is averaging 47% in national polls, while Trump is around 44%. These numbers have been relatively stable, indicating a tight race. Harris’ campaign gained momentum during her party’s convention in Chicago, where she gave a rousing speech promising a “new way forward” for America.
Despite this lead, it’s important to note that national elections are just one part of the equation. The US electoral system relies on the Electoral College, not just the popular vote. This means that winning in key battleground states can be more important than gaining a nationwide lead.
Battleground states
The real contest will be in the battleground states, where the election is often decided. These states are highly competitive and can go either way, making them crucial for both candidates. Current polls show tight races in several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, which has a large number of electoral votes, polls indicate Harris and Trump are neck and neck. This is important because winning Pennsylvania could provide a significant lead toward the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. There are reports of similar close contests in Michigan and Wisconsin, where recent elections have seen a shift in party dominance.
Polling in these states may be less reliable due to fewer surveys and higher margins of error. However, the close numbers suggest that both campaigns are focusing heavily on these crucial areas.
How the surveys are calculated
The statistics presented are averages compiled by polling analysis websites like 538. These sites collect data from a variety of surveys conducted across the country and in battleground states. They employ rigorous quality control measures, including ensuring transparency about the number of respondents, timing, and methodology of the surveys (e.g., telephone, online).
538’s methodology aims to create a balanced and accurate picture of the election landscape by filtering out unreliable surveys and incorporating data from multiple sources.
Trust in surveys
The accuracy of polls is often a topic of debate. Past elections have shown that surveys can sometimes underestimate support for candidates, as seen by Trump’s surprise victories in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters are constantly working to improve their methods and address past shortcomings, such as accurately reflecting the composition of the voting population.
Despite these efforts, predicting voter turnout and other variables remains challenging. As election day approaches, the race remains unpredictable, and the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and the effectiveness of each candidate’s campaign strategies.
Conclusion
As the election draws closer, the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains exceptionally close. National polls show Harris with a slight lead, but the real battle will take place in states where the race is very close. The Electoral College system makes these state-by-state results crucial to determining the next president.
With less than two months until the election, both candidates are ramping up their campaigns, focusing on swing states, and addressing key voter concerns. As always, the final outcome will depend on a number of factors, including voter turnout and last-minute developments.