Why Pakistan is Becoming Economically Weaker: A Deep Dive into the Causes

  1. Political instability: A major factor
    A significant cause of Pakistan’s economic difficulties is its continued political instability. The country has changed government several times, often due to military intervention or political unrest. This instability disrupts the economy because there is little continuity in policies. When a new government comes to power, they often change or abandon previous policies, causing long-term economic plans to fail to take root. Investors, both local and international, often avoid investing in countries with such unpredictability for fear of losses or regulatory changes.

Political instability also fosters a lack of trust in governance, which affects confidence in the economy. People and businesses are less likely to spend, invest, or take risks, slowing economic growth. Over time, this has made it difficult for Pakistan to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), which is vital for a country to develop industries, infrastructure, and jobs.

  1. Debt burden
    Pakistan’s debt situation is one of its biggest challenges. The country borrows money from international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to keep its economy afloat. While borrowing is not necessarily bad if it is used for growth, most of Pakistan’s debt has gone into reducing the budget deficit and repaying earlier debts rather than investing in productive sectors.

This has created a vicious cycle of borrowing to repay earlier debts. As a result, a large portion of the national budget is spent on debt repayment – ​​paying interest on debt rather than funding education, healthcare or infrastructure. This limits the government’s ability to invest in sectors that can help the economy grow in the long run. When you add the rising debt repayment burden to this, Pakistan finds itself in a situation where achieving growth becomes even more difficult.

  1. Energy Crisis: Slowing Down Growth
    For many years, Pakistan has been grappling with an energy crisis, which directly impacts its economy. Power shortages, especially electricity shortages, make it difficult for industries to operate smoothly. Factories often face load-shedding (scheduled power cuts), which delays production and increases costs. Businesses that can afford backup generators face higher operating costs, while those that cannot often have to scale back their operations.

The lack of reliable energy supply affects Pakistan’s ability to develop its manufacturing sector, which is essential for creating jobs and increasing exports. Additionally, energy sector inefficiencies, such as poor management of resources, outdated infrastructure and corruption, further weaken the economy.

Economic Crisis in Pakistan
  1. Unbalanced trade and import dependence
    Pakistan’s trade imbalance is another serious issue. The country imports more than it exports, depleting foreign exchange reserves. A large portion of imports consist of oil and machinery, which are needed to keep industries running. However, Pakistan’s exports – mainly textiles and agricultural products – are not enough to bridge this gap.

When a country imports more than it exports, it leads to a current account deficit, which can be dangerous for the economy. This deficit further increases Pakistan’s dependence on foreign loans to meet its import bills, putting further pressure on the economy. The lack of diversity in Pakistan’s export products also means that the country is vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand, making it difficult to build a strong economic base.

  1. Corruption and mismanagement

Corruption has long been a problem in Pakistan and is one of the major causes that hinder development. Funds set aside for public welfare or infrastructure development are often embezzled by corrupt officials. This misappropriation of funds not only leads to a lack of proper infrastructure but also leads to a loss of public confidence in the government.

Corruption is also closely linked to inefficiencies in the bureaucracy. The government machinery is often slow and ineffective in implementing reforms or even in basic tasks like tax collection. When the system is burdened with red tape and dishonest officials, it becomes nearly impossible to make the structural changes necessary for economic progress.

“Is the US Economy Stronger Now Compared to the Trump Era?”

The question of whether the US economy has performed better under President Joe Biden or his predecessor Donald Trump is a central theme of the current US presidential campaign. Both parties offer compelling narratives. Vice President Kamala Harris has argued that the US economy under the Biden administration is the “strongest in the world,” while Donald Trump insists that he presided over “the greatest economy in our country’s history” and accuses the Biden-Harris administration of ruining it.

In reality, economic performance under these two presidents is more nuanced. An analysis of key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, employment, wages, and financial markets can provide a clear picture of their respective economic records.

Economic growth
Economic growth, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is one of the most basic indicators of economic performance. GDP represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country and is an important measure of economic health.

During Trump’s tenure, economic growth fluctuated significantly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The US economy initially experienced stable growth, with an average annual growth rate of around 2.3% from January 2017 to early 2020. However, the onset of the pandemic caused a dramatic drop in GDP as businesses closed and economic activity decreased sharply. After the initial setback, the economy bounced back, showing a strong recovery towards the end of Trump’s term, with annual GDP growth still averaging 2.3% during his four years of presidency.

The Biden administration has continued this trend of recovery, claiming a strong comeback from the pandemic. US GDP growth has averaged 2.2% so far during Biden’s tenure, almost identical to Trump’s average. While Biden’s figure is slightly lower, it reflects a period of ongoing economic stabilisation following the volatile ups and downs of the pandemic years. Importantly, the US has demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 countries in terms of GDP growth, a testament to the underlying strength of the economy during this period.

Both presidents faced unique economic challenges. Trump’s term saw a sharp economic downturn due to COVID-19, while Biden’s presidency had to manage a recovery from that downturn. Despite these challenges, overall growth rates under the two administrations are remarkably similar.

Inflation
Inflation, or the rate at which prices rise, has been a hot-button issue in recent years and a major talking point for both administrations. Trump has claimed that the U.S. has experienced the “worst inflation ever” under Biden, but that statement doesn’t hold up against historical data.

Inflation rose sharply in the first two years of Biden’s presidency, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, driven primarily by global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The peak in inflation under Biden was significant, but not unprecedented — the U.S. inflation rate was higher in 1981, and there have been other periods in U.S. history when inflation rates have been even higher. Today, inflation has eased to about 3%, which is still higher than when Trump left office, but it reflects a downward trend after reaching its peak. For example, grocery prices rose 13.5% in the year ending in August 2022, the most of Biden’s term, but they have since stabilized, rising only 1.1% from July 2023 to July 2024. Some economists argue that Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, passed in 2021 to stimulate the economy after the pandemic, contributed to inflationary pressures by injecting large amounts of cash into the economy. While the rescue plan helped accelerate economic recovery and job growth, it may also have contributed to price increases. Inflation has been a global issue, with many Western countries experiencing similarly high rates in 2021 and 2022. The factors behind inflation are complex, involving both global disruptions and domestic policy decisions.

Employment
Employment is another key indicator when assessing economic performance. Both Trump and Biden have strong employment figures to point to, but context is important.

In the first three years of Trump’s presidency, about 6.7 million non-farm jobs were added. However, the pandemic led to massive job losses in 2020, causing unemployment to soar. By the time Trump left office in January 2021, unemployment had fallen from the pandemic peak to about 7% but remained well above pre-pandemic levels.

Under Biden’s leadership, the US labour market has rebounded significantly. According to available data, about 16 million jobs have been added since January 2021, marking the fastest job growth delivered by any president in US history since 1939. This rapid job recovery is partly due to the natural rebound from the pandemic and partly driven by Biden’s US government.

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